Survival probability of existing structures

Abstract

Revised survival probability of particular (sections, bars, connections) and structural (beams, plates, columns, slabs) members as a residual reliability parameter of existing structures is discussed. The conventional resistances, safety margins and time-dependent survival probabilities of particular members are analysed. The effect of two intermittent rectangular pulse action processes on a long-term survival probability of the members is considered. It is recommended to assess this probability by the method of transformed conditional probabilities. The revised survival probability prediction of the members during their residual service life is based on the truncated distribution and Bayes theorem approaches.